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Crude
Cut Property Predictor Models
(CCPP)
- $6750
Predict/Update
Cut Properties: given Cut Points,
Whole Crude SpGr, Sulfur & Light Ends,
and Base Crude assay properties
Many Properties Predicted: including
yields, density, cold properties, smoke point, aniline point,
refractive index and others
Self
Tuned to Exactly Match "Base" Assay: then can
use tuning data for new predictions
Implemented
as Excel Functions: one spreadsheet function for each
property - like =SUM()
Accuracy
of Prediction: available for all models
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Crude
Oil Assay Simulator (Assay-Sim)
- $9750
Update
a Complete Assay:
from Whole Crude SpGr, Sulfur and Lt Ends
Recut: to user specified cut points
Assay
Library Included (244 Assays):
for use as Base assays
Uses
CCPP Models: to predict properties
Single
Screen for Most Activity:
Uses a very simple interface
Excel
Application - Can Be Modified:
Can change assay formats and add crude oil monitoring data
as source for predictions
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Links
to Assay Simulator and CCPP Models Information
The
HPI Assay Simulator predicts a crude oil assay; i.e., product
yields and properties, given the whole crude properties plus a "Base"
crude assay (see Why It Works). The
1995 Library of of 240 assays is included for use as "Base"
assays. The Assay Simulator uses the HPI CCPP (Crude
Cut Property Prediction) models to predict
cut properties. CCPP models are a series of crude oil cut
property models that depend on Whole Crude C6+(WC) properties. Input
data to the prediction process includes: cut points plus whole crude
density, sulfur, light ends (through C5s), nitrogen, metals and
Conradson carbon. The Assay Simulator can be used for assay
recutting, creating assays from minimal data and updating assays
based on monitoring data. Resulting assays can be used to improve
crude purchasing decisions, or to update
LP refinery planning models based on
crude delivery data. It can also be used to check laboratory
assay data. The basic Assay Simulator program updates one assay
at a time in our standard format, but can be easily modified to
update a batch of crude assays and output the results in your format.
The
CCPP models, which underlie the Assay Simulator, predict
assay cut properties from cut points and whole crude properties
and are implemented as a series of Excel
Functions. The models are created by HPI using a neural net
program that has access to hundreds of new and old assays. Each
CCPP property model includes accuracy prediction information
that was generated when the models were produced. The Assay Simulator
uses these models and creates tuning factors to make the model exactly
match the Base Assay data. These tuned model can then be used for
several purposes
The
user enters whole crude properties into the Assay Simulator program
and selects a "Base" crude, which then generates the assay
from the appropriate CCPP models. The entire Assay Simulator
and the CCPP models are implemented in MS Excel (ver 97 +).
The
accuracy of the raw predictions are available
from the Functions. The CCPP model has the characteristic
of moving only incrementally from the Base assay. This is sometimes
very desirable because it simplifies the analysis of LP runs, especially
when comparing the results with those based on the old assay. A
completely new assay (even though it is "right") can cause
wild ripples in the LP solution, while the Asasay Simulator smooths
the transition to the newest data.
The
Assay Simulator is an Excel application that performs the
updating process, and includes the "World" CCPP
models. The application includes the tuning process that occurs
invisibly whenever a new Base crude is selected. The library of
240 crudes from the 1995 HPI Crude Oil Assay Database is included
for use as Base crudes. The system can be modified to use other
assay formats.
A demo
version of the Assay Simulator is available for download. It
uses a Family model for the Saudi Arab crudes rather than the "World"
CCPP model.
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